In a series of exchanges on X, Adam Back, CEO of blockchain technology firm Blockstream, projected that Bitcoin could surge beyond $1 million if the United States were to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) under President-elect Donald Trump. “If the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve happens, prepare for 7 figure bitcoin. This cycle. The market is skeptical on meaningful follow through for now, so that is not at all priced in,” Back stated.
if the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve happens prepare for 7 figure bitcoin. this cycle. the market is skeptical on meaningful follow through for now, so that is not at all priced in.
— Adam Back (@adam3us) November 18, 2024
The bold prediction sparked discussions among industry experts and enthusiasts. James Van Straten, a noted crypto analyst, responded, “7 figures? I don’t think I’m mentally prepared for 6.” Acknowledging the market’s doubt, Back replied, “That’s a fairly big ‘if’ though. At least if we infer from market price, the market thinks a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is unlikely. If that becomes real, I’d expect a rapid repricing.”
The conversation highlights the market’s skepticism regarding the feasibility of the US government accumulating such a significant Bitcoin reserve. Van Straten, like other experts, suggested that a nation might consider “front-running” this potential scenario, to which Back noted, “There’s no good way to buy 1 million BTC other than very, very quietly. Even then, once it leaks, the entire world gets FOMO and a price teleport happens.”
Portal, a custodyless interoperability protocol for Bitcoin, weighed in on the discussion via X: “If the US starts one, surely the rest of the world will start to follow suit as well.” This sentiment underscores the potential global ripple effect of a US-initiated SBR on Bitcoin adoption and valuation.
Skepticism was also voiced by X user AndyLiteMan (@LiteAndy), who critiqued Back’s astronomical prediction: “As much as that would be exciting, it’s not going to happen. We hear this every cycle.” Back maintained his position, emphasizing the conditional nature of his prediction: “I said ‘if,’ and that market doesn’t believe it so far.”
Adding another layer to the unfolding narrative, Dennis Porter, CEO and founder of the Satoshi Act Fund—a US nonprofit advocating for Bitcoin adoption—claimed on November 18 that Donald Trump’s team is considering an executive order to establish a national SBR, as Bitcoinist reported. “I’ve heard that the Trump team is considering an Executive Order for a National ‘Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’ in order to beat any state from passing it into law first,” Porter disclosed via X. “I can confirm that US Senate offices are backing this plan up. Game on President Trump. The race is on.”
Porter, deeply involved in legislative efforts surrounding Bitcoin adoption, noted that his information stems from “private conversations with people familiar” with the matter and his direct involvement in promoting SBR language across the United States and internationally.
Notably, it is crucial to distinguish between the proposals being discussed. Porter’s reference to Trump’s consideration pertains to an executive order that would establish a national SBR. This contrasts with Trump’s previous suggestion at the Bitcoin 2024 conference to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve by retaining all “seized coins” obtained through law enforcement actions.
Furthermore, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced the Bitcoin Act, which proposes the US government purchase 1 million BTC over five years, allocating 200,000 BTC per year. Addressing this legislative initiative, Back commented on a Polymarket prediction market screenshot showing a 36% chance for “Will Trump create a national Bitcoin reserve?” He clarified, “Optimistic IMO and depends on what they mean. ‘Not selling seized coins’ is very different from Senator Lummis’ SBR bill to buy 1 million BTC.”
The latter could send the Bitcoin price skyrocketing. Back highlighted the logistical challenges of such a substantial acquisition: “There’s no good way to buy 1 million BTC other than very, very quietly. Even then, once it leaks, the entire world gets FOMO and a price teleport happens.”
At press time, BTC traded at $92,329.
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