This Bitcoin Metric Has Predicted Every Cycle Bottom, But What Is It Saying Now?

Bitcoin is back above $70,000 after a bruising first quarter, but there are still questions as to whether the asset has already established its cycle low or is still moving through a bottoming phase. A technical indicator following one interesting Bitcoin metric is presently showing signs that the bottom may not yet be in.

The Metric With A Perfect Record

One Bitcoin metric has always predicted every cycle bottom, and what it is saying now is very important for its next outlook. This metric is the long-term holder supply in loss, which is a measure that tracks how much of the supply held by long-term investors is underwater at current prices.

Long-term holders are Bitcoin addresses who have held their coins for at least 155 days, and so it captures how deeply underwater the most patient cohort of the market has become. 

The numbers, which were noted in an analysis by crypto analyst Ardi, show that whenever long-term holders fall into losses in significant numbers, it has always occurred near the end of bear markets. These are phases where selling pressure decreases as weaker hands exit, and only the most committed investors are left.

During the 2015 cycle bottom, 53% of long-term holder supply was in loss. A similar pattern appeared at the 2018 low, where about 45% of long-term holdings were in loss. The trend repeated once more during the 2022 bottom, with the figure reaching around 44%.

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The current long-term holder supply in Loss reading sits at approximately 29% and it is climbing. That figure is meaningful in two directions simultaneously. On one hand, it confirms that conditions are deteriorating and there’s still a large share of holders that would move into loss if prices decline further. 

On the other hand, the reading is still well short of the 44% to 53% range that has always been certified as genuine cycle floors. According to crypto analyst Ardi, this second meaning shows that the Bitcoin price is not at the bottom yet but is still building toward the conditions where bottoms form. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $71,127, down by 1.1% in the past 24 hours. Its most recent cycle low was recorded just below $63,000 during the market-wide crash in early February. The leading cryptocurrency is still trading around $70,000, which has turned out to be a psychologically important area. 

The broader crypto market sentiment is currently lacking any clear bullish momentum, with price action across major assets reflecting hesitation. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at a reading of 43, placing it firmly in neutral territory.

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