After setting a new all-time high back in early October, the Bitcoin price entered into an extended downtrend period, losing over $40,000 of its value to drop below $90,000. During this time, sentiment and market participation have understandably been negative, with investors pulling back from the cryptocurrency. However, with the year drawing to an end, a crypto analyst has explained what is expected for Bitcoin next, and why investors aren’t ready for what’s coming.
Pseudonymous analyst Crypto Waterman took to X to outline the reasons why they believe that Bitcoin could be on the verge of a breakout. While many believe that the top is in, Waterman argues the opposite, using the trends from previous cycle tops to show why the Bitcoin price is yet to top.
For one, the analyst argues that pullbacks like these are part of each cycle, and the previous cycles were no different. But other than the pullback, there is also the gold and silver trend, with both having hit all-time highs in December 2025, while Bitcoin has continued to struggle.
Waterman explained that in previous cycles, both gold and silver hit new all-time highs before the Bitcoin price followed later. As such, with both of these assets already hitting new peaks, the crypto analyst believes that leaving Bitcoin to buy gold and silver isn’t a smart choice.
Additionally, one of the major markers of a Bitcoin cycle top has been the performance of the Coinbase app on the App Store. In past cycles, Coinbase had risen to number 1 before Bitcoin peaked. Meanwhile, it only reached Number 280 in October when BTC made its $126,000 all-time high. Thus, it suggests that this isn’t the top.
Other factors are also mentioned as to why this is not the top for the Bitcoin price, one of which is the altcoin market performance. Altcoins have continued to struggle during this time, with major alts being down between 60% and 80% from their all-time highs and no sign of an altcoin season in sight.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index also did not cross the 90 mark this cycle, suggesting that euphoria did not reach its peak, as well as the MVRV Z-Score remaining below 3, when the trend is for the Z-Score to reach above 6 before it tops.
Given this, the crypto analyst suggests that a number of things will happen. Investors who exited the market back in early 2025 are expected to move back in. Then, those who left in 2024 will follow, and then the 2021-2022 investor cohort will return. Finally, new retail investors join the market, which will be the signal to exit the market.
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