In the financial market, historical trends often offer a glimpse into potential future outcomes and so far, July has historically been a strong month for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, and analysts are eyeing this pattern to predict another fruitful period.
According to seasoned market analysts from QCP Capital, Bitcoin has displayed a median return of 9.6% in July over the years, with a pattern of bouncing back significanly following lackluster performances in June. This year, Bitcoin’s decline of nearly 10% in June sets the stage for a possible uplift in July based on these historical insights.
3/ Looking at seasonality, BTC has a median return of 9.6% in July and tends to bounce back strongly especially after a negative June (-9.85%).
— QCP (@QCPgroup) July 1, 2024
Adding to the optimistic outlook, Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han have corroborated the trend, noting that improved liquidity conditions expected in July could further “bolster” the market.
The aftermath of June’s sell-offs has cleansed the market of excess positions, potentially paving the way for more stable and positive price movements.
Moreover, the trading volumes for Bitcoin and Ethereum, encompassing both spot and futures across global exchanges, have witnessed a dip from $90 billion in May to $75 billion in June. This consolidation in trade volumes is seen as setting a healthier stage for the next wave of market activity, according to the analysts..
The positive July seasonality is not just a pattern observed in the top cryptocurrencies but is also underpinned by broader market dynamics.
Analysts like Ali have pointed out that the recovery patterns post-June slumps particularly indicate “strong bounce back” in July performances historically.
Historically, when #Bitcoin has had a negative June, it tends to bounce back strongly in July. In fact, $BTC has shown an average return of 7.98% and a median return of 9.60% during this month. pic.twitter.com/fJaIwc7Eob
— Ali (@ali_charts) June 30, 2024
This has been particularly true for Bitcoin, which has shown an average return of nearly 8% during this month.
It is worth noting that the setup for a bullish July is further supported by the technical analysis of Bitcoin’s recent price movements.
In the past 24 hours alone, Bitcoin has surged by 2.7% currently trading at $63,104, marking a promising start to the month. This recent uptick has pushed its weekly gains to a similar 2.7%, reflecting growing investor confidence.
Despite these historical and current positive indicators, the predictions aren’t without their challenges. Market conditions, including macroeconomic factors and regulatory developments could still influence crypto prices in a way not expected.
Additionally, while analysts provide a hopeful outlook based on statistical and historical data, the volatile nature of cryptocurrency markets means that significant divergences from past trends can still occur.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
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