Gold Futures Hit Record on U.S. Tariffs, Possibly Boosting Safe-Haven Case for Bitcoin

Gold futures surged to a record high on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imported gold bars, a rare move sparking both safe-haven buying and fresh concerns over supply disruptions in a market unaccustomed to such trade measures.

The most actively traded U.S. gold futures contract climbed as high as $3,534 per troy ounce after U.S. Customs and Border Protection confirmed that one-kilogram and 100-ounce bars would face reciprocal tariffs.

Tariffs make imported gold more expensive for U.S. buyers. That cost pressure typically pushes futures prices higher than spot prices, creating arbitrage opportunities for traders. The setup can fuel speculative buying, but it also sends a geopolitical signal — gold has historically been viewed as outside trade-war crossfire, more akin to a currency than a competitive product.

The move is notable because most U.S. gold imports come from Switzerland, which received one of the highest tariff rates under the policy. A sudden increase in costs for that supply could raise the risk of a short squeeze if deliveries slow.

“Trump’s tariffs on 100-ounce and 1-kilo gold bars could wreak havoc on the COMEX,” bitcoin critic and gold advocate Peter Schiff said in a post on X. “Prices could soar as shorts rush to cover to avoid having to pay 39% tariffs to import bars from Switzerland if longs take delivery. Even if they don’t import, all such bars will trade at premiums.”

The rally comes at a time when interest rates headed lower in the West and global trade tensions are already high, factors that tend to strengthen gold’s appeal as a store of value during economic uncertainty.

Historically, strong gold rallies have often coincided with gains in bitcoin, which some traders view as an alternative “safe-haven” asset. Tokenized gold products such as PAX Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUT) were both modestly higher over the past 24 hours, while bitcoin slipped about 1%.

Tariffs on gold could also make the case for bitcoin, which is not subject to customs duties and is sometimes described as “digital gold.” While the metal remains the dominant safe-haven asset, the latest price surge shows how policy changes can push investors to reassess their options.

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