Following the Bitcoin (BTC) price increase above $94,000, Tony Severino, a CMT-verified analyst, released a detailed technical analysis outlining a clear strategy for navigating the next major move. As the Heikin Ashi monthly candle flashes bearish signals, the analyst shares the ideal time to buy Bitcoin, warning investors of potential bear market traps.
Severino has provided an in-depth examination of the Bitcoin market, identifying precise conditions under which investors and traders, including himself, might consider re-entering based on key market indicators and price action. The analyst broke down a Bitcoin price chart featuring monthly candlesticks, Bollinger Bands, and historical comparisons.
The chart highlights that in late 2021, after hitting its previous ATH, Bitcoin touched the Upper Bollinger Band but failed to close above it. At the time, this move was perceived as a classic non-confirmation, which ultimately led to a sharp reversal and brutal bear market in 2022.
Fast forward to today, Bitcoin is hovering above $94,000, with the Upper Bollinger Band positioned at $108,000. According to Severino, merely reaching this Upper Bollinger Band level, as it did in 2021, is not enough reason to buy Bitcoin in anticipation of a price increase. Instead, the analyst asserts that a full monthly close above $108,000 is needed to confirm a breakout and continuation of the bullish trend.
The analyst also disclosed that he would consider buying Bitcoin once it closes sufficiently above this level. However, if the flagship cryptocurrency fails to close above the Upper Bollinger Band for a month, it could mirror the 2021 double top and fake breakout, potentially leading to another steep bear market this cycle.
Overall, Severino advises investors to closely watch Bitcoin’s price action around this key Bollinger Band. He stresses that capital preservation far outweighs succumbing to the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO). With elevated risks and rising volatility, the analyst believes that clear confirmation signals are the only way to engage with the market safely.
While Severino confirms the ideal time to buy BTC, the analyst also announced that the Bitcoin Heikin Ashi candles have turned bearish. The analyst shared a 12-week Heikin Ashi candlestick chart, which shows Bitcoin flashing early warning signs of a potential bear market.
The chart highlights a critical moment where Bitcoin’s Heikin Ashi candle turned red for the first time since its previous price peaks in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Historically, such a signal has marked the beginning of prolonged bear markets and deep price corrections.
Further strengthening the bearish outlook, Severino pointed out that the Fisher Transform, a technical indicator used to detect trend reversals, is exhibiting a bearish crossover, with the green Fisher line dropping below the red Trigger line. In previous cycles, whenever these two signals — the Heikin Ashi and Fisher Transform — aligned, Bitcoin experienced substantial declines that lasted for months, if not years.
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