According to CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno, Bitcoin may already be two months into a bear market after several of his indicators flipped to bearish in early November.
Moreno pointed to the price sliding below its one-year moving average as the clearest technical confirmation, and he used that signal to argue a lower trading range may be on the path ahead.
Moreno said a likely bottom could sit near the realized price, which he put in the $56,000–$60,000 band. That would mean a drawdown of roughly 55% from Bitcoin’s all-time high — a drop that is large but smaller than past crashes that hit 70% or 80%.
Market momentum is muted. Bitcoin began 2025 near $93,000, peaked at about $126,050 in October, and ended the year below where it started, according to CoinGecko. Trading hovered around $88,920 as of Friday, based on available data.
Bitcoin was holding the $87,000–$89,000 range as $1.85 billion in options approached expiry. Reports show derivatives volume fell 39% while open interest remained flat, a mix that points to hesitation rather than aggressive positioning by traders.
Technical measures show price compression near support, and traders are watching expiry closely because a larger move could follow when those contracts settle. Volatility has been lower than in some previous selloffs, and that has left price action tighter than many expected.
Institutional Accumulation And The Missing Shock
Moreno and others note the environment feels structurally different. Large institutional players and regulated ETFs have been buying more regularly, and those flows are not known to be selling in panic.
That steady demand has helped prevent the kind of cascading failures seen in 2022, when Terra, Celsius and FTX collapsed and amplified losses across the market. Because those big shocks did not occur this time, the drawdown looks more controlled, even if prices are moving down.
Outlook Hinges On Macro And Regulation
Some analysts still predict 2026 could bring fresh highs, citing expected US rate cuts and a friendlier policy stance in Washington. At the same time, observers are watching whether Bitcoin’s tighter link to US stocks holds as macro and regulatory decisions land.
If the correlation weakens, crypto may chart its own course. If it stays strong, the path for Bitcoin could be shaped largely by broader market moves rather than crypto-specific flows.
What Traders Will Watch
Based on reports and Moreno’s view, the key items to monitor are the one-year moving average, realized price levels near $56,000–$60,000, the outcome of options expiries, and whether institutional buyers continue steady purchases.
Price action has been calmer than some past crises, but that calm has masked real downside risk. Analysts and traders are split; some expect a return to growth next year, while others are preparing for lower prices before any sustained recovery.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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