Bitcoin Update

With a break of the support band (83,870 / 85,370) Bitcoin found itself testing potential the intra-day support at the November 21st low (80,595.20). It avoided a full test and has bounced. We may have seen a short-term low today but the price structure from the January 14th high is “murky”, is it a three wave A-B-C decline or is it 1-2-3 of a five-wave decline with 4 and 5 to unfold? Only a rally back above the broken support band and a follow-through that overtakes Daily Cloud resistance would support the A-B-C thesis.

The Weekly Cloud model (chart on the left) does not offer a positive “a short-term bottom is in place” scenario. Bitcoin broke below the lower Span of the Cloud for the first time in four years and is teetering on the Lower Parallel (solid red line) of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (red P1-P3).

A break of the November low at 80,595.20 would put the mid-April 2025 low at 74,375.00 in the bear’s crosshairs.

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