At spot rates, Bitcoin is firm, but traders doubt the uptrend following the unexpected dump on June 11. Currently, Bitcoin is stable, trending above $67,000 and down despite gains on June 12.
Still, even at this level, there are concerns because the coin, despite all the confidence across the board, remains below $72,000. This reaction line is emerging as a key liquidation area. If broken, BTC could unleash a wave of short liquidation, accelerating the lift-off to $74,000 and beyond.
Taking to X, one on-chain analyst said that Bitcoin is stagnating at spot levels below $72,000 because hedge funds are short on futures.
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Though this has been a known development for a while, hedge funds have stacked their BTC shorts via the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) by over $1 billion in the last week alone.
Therefore, the analyst says two things must happen to reverse this effect and support prices. Although the BTC shorting on CME is not necessarily a bearish signal, hedge funds are hedging by playing a sophisticated arbitrate strategy, and coin holders must look at fundamentals.
Hedge funds are simultaneously shorting BTC futures on CME and buying on the spot market. Therefore, for the coin to break $72,000 and pierce $74,000, the analyst said users must buy at least 2X the amount of BTC futures shorted in the spot market.
If there is no incentive to lift spot prices higher, then Bitcoin prices must fall. Falling prices will encourage short sellers, in this case, the hedge funds, to exit their positions lest they continue paying funding rates. In a bearish market, and when futures prices begin to fall, short sellers must pay longs for the index not to deviate.
Whether there will be a spike in demand in the spot market remains to be seen. However, what’s evident is that institutional interest in Bitcoin is there, only that hedge funds, as seen from their arbitrage trade using CME, want to profit, regardless of price movements.
The analyst also shared another chart to solidify the bullish outlook. The trader used the “Growth Rate” metric to compare changes in Bitcoin’s market and realized cap.
Currently, the metric is at around 0.001, way below 0.002, meaning the market is highly likely overheated. Bulls might be preparing to make a comeback.
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