Bitcoin Sell-Side Risk Ratio Just Dropped Under This Critical Level — What Next For BTC Price?

The price action of Bitcoin has been largely underwhelming on almost every weekend so far in 2025. After an impressive start to the week, the flagship cryptocurrency kicked off the weekend with a return to around the $84,000 level.

The weekend woes of BTC’s price seem to only be deepening, as the market leader slipped under the $83,000 mark on Saturday, March 29. However, the latest on-chain data suggests that the Bitcoin price retracement might be nearing its end.

Here’s Why BTC Price Could Rebound To A New High

In a March 29 post on the X platform, crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that the price of Bitcoin could be primed for a rebound following its recent struggles. This projection is based on changes in the coin’s sell-side risk ratio, a metric that estimates the ratio between the sum of all realized profits and losses and the total realized market capitalization.

This metric usually assumes that all losses and profits realized in the market are a potential source of sell-side pressure. The realized losses and profits divided by the realized capitalization help quantify the aggregate sell-side risk in the market.

Typically, when the sell-side risk ratio has a high value, it implies a high level of realization and oversupply of coins, as seen during late-stage bull markets and bear market capitulation events. Meanwhile, low values for the metric are associated with periods of low realization and volatility, as seen in market consolidation phases and a sideways market.

According to Martinez, the Bitcoin sell-side risk ratio has dropped to around 0.086% this weekend. As observed in the chart below, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded from its local bottom in the past two years whenever the sell-side risk ratio slips below 0.1%.

In January 2024, the premier cryptocurrency surged to a then-all-time high price of $73,737 after the sell-side risk ratio fell beneath the 0.1% threshold. Similarly, the Bitcoin price ran up to the current all-time high after the sell-side risk indicator slumped to under the 0.1% level in September 2024.

If history is anything to go by, the price of Bitcoin could be gearing up for a rebound to a new high from its current lows, as the sell-side risk ratio lies at 0.086%. However, it is worth noting that the market leader’s rebound was sustained by positive catalysts, like the US-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January and the election victory of Donald Trump as US President, in November.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $83,100, reflecting an almost 2% decline in the past 24 hours.

 Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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