Bitcoin Remains In A High-Risk Zone As Short-Term Holders Stay Underwater

Bitcoin is struggling to maintain the $90,000 level after a sharp rejection from the $94,000 resistance zone, keeping market sentiment sharply divided. While some analysts argue that BTC is entering a deeper corrective phase, others believe the pullback is a necessary reset before a renewed upside attempt. The current price action reflects this uncertainty, with volatility rising as buyers and sellers battle for short-term control.

According to an analysis shared by Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s short-term risk structure remains fragile. His short-term risk chart places BTC below the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, currently estimated near $100,200. Price is also trading beneath all major moving averages, including the 128-day, 200-day, and 365-day SMAs, reinforcing the view that the broader structure is still bearish. At current levels around $91,000, Bitcoin sits in a moderate risk zone, positioned between the STH Cost Basis and the -15% downside boundary.

This positioning suggests that recent rebounds should be treated cautiously. Until BTC reclaims the STH Cost Basis, upside moves are more likely to represent technical bounces within a downward trend rather than a confirmed reversal.

Conversely, a breakdown below the moderate risk boundary would signal rising downside risk and could accelerate selling pressure. As a result, the $90K–$100K range remains a critical battleground for Bitcoin’s next directional move.

STH Losses Continue To Cap Bitcoin’s Upside

Adler’s analysis also highlights a second critical framework: the chart tracking Bitcoin’s all-time highs alongside euphoria zones and the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) indicator. This metric measures the ratio between Bitcoin’s current market price and the average realized price of coins held by short-term investors, offering a direct view into the profitability—and behavior—of this highly reactive cohort.

At present, STH MVRV sits near 0.92, well below its historical mean of roughly 1.09 and decisively under the neutral level of 1.0. In practical terms, this implies that the average short-term holder is holding an unrealized loss of about 8%.

Historically, periods where STH MVRV remains below 1.0 have tended to coincide with either capitulation phases or extended consolidation ranges, rather than sustained bullish expansions. The last clear euphoria zone on this chart appeared during the all-time high update in October 2025, underscoring how far current conditions are from a speculative extreme.

As long as STH MVRV remains below breakeven, short-term holders are incentivized to sell into rallies as the price approaches their cost basis. This behavior creates persistent overhead supply and reinforces structural resistance near the STH Cost Basis, close to the $100,000 level. Consequently, reclaiming that zone is not just a psychological milestone but a necessary condition for any meaningful regime shift back to a bullish market structure.

Bitcoin Price Recovery Lacks Confirmation

Bitcoin’s price action on the daily chart reflects a market still trapped in a fragile recovery attempt after a sharp rejection from higher levels. Following the failed breakout above the $94,000–$95,000 area, BTC experienced a decisive sell-off that pushed the price back toward the $85,000 zone, where buyers stepped in aggressively. This reaction marked a short-term bottom, but the subsequent rebound has so far lacked structural strength.

At present, Bitcoin is trading near the $90,000–$91,000 region, a former support that has now turned into a key pivot. Price remains below the 200-day and 365-day moving averages, both of which are sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance. The 128-day moving average has also capped recent upside attempts, reinforcing the idea that the broader trend remains corrective rather than impulsively bullish.

From a structure standpoint, the chart shows a sequence of lower highs since the October peak, suggesting that sellers continue to control the macro trend. Volume expanded notably during the November–December sell-off, while the current bounce is unfolding on comparatively lighter participation. This divergence implies that the move higher may be more short-covering driven than supported by strong spot demand.

Unless Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above the $94,000–$95,000 resistance zone with increasing volume, the risk of another rejection remains elevated. Failure to do so could reopen the path toward the $85,000 support, where the market would once again be forced to prove its underlying strength.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

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