The Bitcoin price has recently experienced a significant uptick in volatility, positively impacting its performance as it recovered to $110,000 after opening the week at $107,000.
Despite this, Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain momentum near all-time high levels, combined with increasing selling pressure over the past month, has led some to speculate that the current bull run may have peaked.
Analysts at The Bull Theory, on the other hand, have identified key indicators suggesting a shift in Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, with potential for the ongoing bullish trend to extend into 2026.
In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the analysts explained that the typical Bitcoin price pattern has historically followed a straightforward rhythm: Halving, a 12–18 month rally, a blow-off top, and then a bear market. This pattern has held true for over a decade, but recent data indicates a significant change.
According to their analysis, Bitcoin is transitioning from a four-year cycle to a five-year cycle, with the next peak anticipated around the second quarter of 2026. This change is attributed to deeper structural shifts within the global economy.
Governments are increasingly rolling over debt for longer periods, business cycles are extending, and liquidity waves are moving through the financial system at a slower pace.
One key factor pointed by the analysts influencing this lag is that when central banks cease tightening their monetary policies, it typically takes 6 to 12 months for liquidity to reach the markets.
The easing signals from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell in the third quarter of 2025, such as indications of ending balance-sheet contraction, are expected to impact markets well into early 2026, rather than having an immediate effect.
Additionally, this delay is evident outside the US China’s money supply (M2) has surged to more than double that of the US and continues to expand. Historically, when China’s liquidity grows faster than that of the US, the Bitcoin price tends to rally a few months later, thereby extending the cycle into the first half of 2026.
Japan’s new Prime Minister has also initiated an economic package aimed at combating inflation, which is expected to further contribute to global liquidity.
This current cycle is also characterized by institutional accumulation rather than retail hype. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate treasuries, and funds are gradually purchasing and holding Bitcoin for extended periods.
Despite the current market conditions, retail interest in Bitcoin remains subdued, with Google Trends showing significantly lower search interest compared to 2021 levels.
This indicates that the market is currently in a phase of quiet expansion rather than widespread mania, and retail euphoria—which typically signals the end of market cycles—has yet to materialize.
On-chain data supports this mid-cycle structure, revealing that institutions continue to accumulate Bitcoin, exchange reserves are near multi-year lows, and miner selling pressure has diminished since the Halving event.
While the four-year Halving model remains relevant, the analysts assert that it is now being reshaped by macro liquidity dynamics, institutional pacing, and elongated global cycles. Consequently, the true peak of this bull run may align more closely with Q2 2026 rather than 2025.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
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