An on-chain data expert has identified a critical level that the Bitcoin price must not break, or it could be at risk of a significant downturn.
On Saturday, March 7, Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson revealed on the social media platform X that the $63,700 level is a crucial support level for the Bitcoin price. The crypto expert analyzed why this price level is critical to the long-term health of the flagship cryptocurrency and other relevant levels to watch.
This on-chain evaluation is based on the Fibonacci-adjusted Market Mean Price, which represents the cost basis, on average, of all Bitcoin holders. This indicator shows BTC’s average cost basis, adjusted with specific Fibonacci ratios; it exhibits mathematical levels of extension or retracement around the BTC average holder’s cost.
As observed in the chart above, $63,700 is the next most relevant level for the Bitcoin price, per the Fibonacci-adjusted Market Mean Price. Wedson noted that the premier cryptocurrency cannot afford to break below this key on-chain level, else its price risks embarking on a downward journey on the charts.
According to the Alphractal founder, the Bitcoin price could fall to the immediate support cushion around $57,000 if it loses the crucial $63,700. However, there is a chance that the market leader could fall even further to the next Fibonacci-adjusted Market Mean Price around $52,400.
In the case where Bitcoin price fails to hold above either of the aforementioned support levels, Wedson identified the $48,700 as the worst-case scenario. A drop to this support level would represent an almost 30% move from the current price point.
Wedson noted in his post:
It is important to note that these levels are dynamic and update daily, as they adjust according to investor behavior on the blockchain.
Wedson appears to have identified the $48,700 as a possible bottom for the premier cryptocurrency in its current bearish phase.
As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $67,330, reflecting an over 1% price decline in the past 24 hours. With a sloppy performance so far in the first quarter of 2026, the market leader is down by nearly 50% from the current all-time high of around $126,080.
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