On Thursday, September 18, the Bitcoin price enjoyed some form of rejuvenation following the outcome of the United States Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced an interest rate cut for the first time in 2025.
The general crypto market rallied on the back of this rate cut announcement, with the Bitcoin price running to a monthly high and almost breaking above the $118,000 level on the day. However, the premier cryptocurrency has failed to build on this momentum, retreating to around $115,500 on Friday, September 19.
With price unable to sustain a serious rally, the question on the other side is—is the Bitcoin market on the brink of capitulation?
In a post on social media platform X, market analytics firm Alphractal revealed that the Bitcoin market is far from price capitulation. According to the blockchain platform, the Bitcoin price has shown no signs of capitulation for over a year—since July 2024.
This on-chain observation is based on the Market Capitulation Index (0 – 3), which tracks potential periods of intense downward price movement. This metric is based on three stress signals: Hash capitulation (>30% decline in 30 days), price capitulation (>50% drop), and supply capitulation (7-day active supply >15%), with each signal contributing a point apiece.
According to Alphractal, scores of around 2 – 3 for the Market Capitulation Index indicate severe market stress and potential capitulation. Typically, high values for this metric suggest extreme selling pressure. Meanwhile, scores between 0 and 1 signal normal market conditions for the Bitcoin price.
Looking at the metric—which is at zero—and the three stress signals, the BTC market does not show any signs of capitulation, with the hash rate hitting new all-time highs in September. Furthermore, while the Bitcoin price has not particularly impressed so far in the past few months, it has mostly been in a consolidation range rather than in a downward trend.
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson noted in a separate post that it will likely take a few more months before the largest cryptocurrency market faces capitulation. Ultimately, this means that the Bitcoin price still has a chance of witnessing another leg up in the current bull cycle.
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $115,400, reflecting an over 2% decline in the past 24 hours.
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