According to the latest on-chain data, the Bitcoin price has closed beneath a crucial level for the second time in 2025. Here’s how the premier cryptocurrency reacted the last time this happened.
In an August 30 post on social media platform X, crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci revealed that the Bitcoin price could be at risk of further corrective action after falling below a critical on-chain level for a second time this year. The relevant indicator here is the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, which measures the price at which short-term investors bought their coins.
For context, short-term holders often refer to investors who have held their coins for 155 days or less. The realized price offers insights into the cost basis of these newer market entrants, who are more sensitive to price fluctuations and show more propensity to move due to sudden changes in prices.
The Bitcoin price typically trends above the STH Realized Price during periods of bullish intensity, while it lags below the metric during bear markets. Hence, this short-term realized price often acts as a dynamic resistance and support for the price of BTC.
The Bitcoin price recently closed beneath the STH Realized Price of around $108,928 on Friday, August 29. However, that wouldn’t be the first time the price of BTC would be closing below the short-term holders’ cost, as it also did earlier in the year.
In February, the market entered into an extended period of correction after the price of Bitcoin closed beneath the STH Realized Price. The flagship cryptocurrency fell almost 20% from around $92,000 to $76,000 between the end of February and the end of April.
With the Bitcoin price closing below the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, the premier cryptocurrency stands at risk of the current pullback worsening. If history repeats itself, investors could also see the price of BTC fall 20% to around $86,000.
Kesmeci said:
In this cycle, as Bitcoin rises not parabolically but like a step-by-step ladder; closings below the STH realized price signal to us that the correction may continue in an annoying way.
After being under intense bearish pressure going into the weekend, the price of BTC has somewhat stabilized over the past day. However, the Bitcoin price has struggled to return above the psychological $110,000 level.
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $108,675, reflecting a 0.4% increase in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the market leader is down by more than 5% in the past seven days.
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