Bitcoin LTH Supply Surge Does Not Reflect Real Demand — Here’s Why

The price of Bitcoin seemed set for another round of pain over the weekend after falling below the psychological $75,000 level on Saturday morning. However, the premier cryptocurrency has somewhat recovered and is looking to reclaim $77,000 as of this writing. At the same time, an increase in the supply of Bitcoin’s long-term investors was also observed on the day, although the signal might not be what it seems.

Here’s Why BTC LTH Supply Data Is Skewed

In a recent post on the X platform, pseudonymous analyst Darkfost revealed a surge in the Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders (LTH) over the past few days. However, this supposed rise in LTH activity might not be as relevant to BTC’s growth as the data would ordinarily suggest.

Highlighting data from CryptoQuant, Darkfost shared that the long-term holder supply has increased from 15 million to 15.8 million BTC over the past two days. The on-chain analyst noted that this metric is among the numerous data points affected by Coinbase’s movement of roughly 800,000 BTC in November 2025.

 

Between November 22nd and 23rd, the US-domiciled crypto exchange shuffled 800,000 BTC (worth nearly $70 billion, at the time) between its internal wallets. As Darkfost mentioned, this maintenance transfer destroyed old LTH UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) and created new but skewed Bitcoin datasets.

The crypto analyst wrote on X:

As a result, datasets across multiple platforms incorporated this movement, affecting UTXO-based metrics, age and value cohorts, STH/LTH cost basis, realized value, volumes, and more.

Saturday, May 23rd marked six months since the Bitcoin transfer, with the moved BTC now fully transitioned from the short-term holder (STH) to the long-term holder supply.

Typically, an increase in LTH supply signals increased accumulation and a growing conviction among the most seasoned crypto investors. However, market participants might want to exercise caution when making decisions with this on-chain signal, considering that it does truly reflect an increase in investor demand.

What’s Next For Bitcoin Price?

In a separate post on the X platform, Darkfost identified the next major resistance level for the Bitcoin price. Highlighting the STH cost basis, the analyst said that this resistance currently sits just above the $80,000 mark.

According to Darkfost, the short-term investors seem to be choosing to cut their losses rather than holding for a reversal, as evidenced by resistance the Bitcoin price faces at their average cost basis. Hence, the premier cryptocurrency needs a sustained break above the $80,000 ceiling for its recovery journey to continue.

As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $76,490, reflecting a 1% price increase in the past 24 hours.

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