Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Show Signs Of Selling — Is A Reversal Imminent?

Recent on-chain data shows that a relevant class of Bitcoin investors known as long-term holders has continued to move out of their market positions.

LTHs Actively Switching To Distribution

In a November 1st post on social media platform X, popular on-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci shared an insight into the prevalent structural bias among Bitcoin’s long-term holders. Kesmeci’s analysis hinges on the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change metric, which tracks the net buying or selling behavior of Bitcoin’s long-term investors over a period of 30 days.

Related Reading: Bitcoin At A ‘Do-Or-Die’ Level As Cycle Faces First Real Test: Analyst

A positive reading is usually interpreted as a sign that the LTHs are in a net accumulation phase, as there are more market participants within this investor class buying Bitcoin than those who are selling. On the flipside, when the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change metric is negative, it means that the LTHs are in a distribution phase.

Kesmeci explained in his post that there has been an increasing amount of momentum towards the sell side of the metric. In the highlighted chart, around 400,000 BTC appears to have been sold off in the past 30 days. Interestingly, the LTHs don’t seem to be easing off on their sales — a behavior which stands equally as a source of concern. 

In a case where Bitcoin’s long-term investors do desist from selling their holdings, Bitcoin could put in a local price bottom, as this typically indicates renewed interest and ‘smart money’ positioning for the next cycle. However, if this distribution momentum continues to grow, the premier cryptocurrency could continue towards the downside, as its long-term holders continue to inject more bearish pressure.

LTH 2.2% Supply Drop Relatively Modest — Analyst

In another X post, crypto pundit Darkfost shed light on the implications of Bitcoin’s LTH behavior shift. According to the analyst, the 2.2% “modest reduction” of Bitcoin LTH supply in October is not much to worry about, especially when compared to the levels seen in 2024. 

As of March 2024, Bitcoin’s LTH supply dropped by approximately 5.05%. In December, there was an even higher decline of about 5.2%. Darkfost implied that the present distribution the market is seeing could therefore be a result of early profit taking, where the market could soon see a rebound of the Bitcoin price. 

Nonetheless, the long-term holder net position’s trend is one that should be monitored, as a move back towards neutral readings could signal the start of an accumulation phase and subsequent price reversal to the upside.

As of this writing, BTC is valued at approximately $110,750, with no significant movement in the past 24 hours.

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