Bitcoin Holds Above $85K—But These 4 Metrics May Decide What Happens Next

Bitcoin has started the week maintaining relative stability, with its price currently hovering around $87,000 despite a minor 0.4% dip over the past 24 hours.

The crypto asset showed upward momentum earlier in the week, briefly rallying beyond $88,000. Although the rally has slowed, the broader market remains focused on whether Bitcoin’s recent performance signals a temporary correction or a more substantial shift in trend.

Market analysts have turned to on-chain metrics for additional clarity. One such analyst, Burak Kesmeci, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, recently examined four key cyclical indicators to assess whether Bitcoin’s bullish phase is losing steam.

Key Indicators Reflect Mixed Sentiment

According to Kesmeci, while some metrics suggest weakness, they do not yet indicate a market top. Kesmeci’s first point highlights the Internal Funding Pressure (IFP) metric, which currently stands at 696K—below its 90-day simple moving average (SMA90) of 794K.

Historically, a cross above the SMA90 tends to signal renewed bullish momentum, but for now, the metric suggests a lack of reversal strength.

The second metric analyzed is the Bull & Bear Market Cycle Indicator. Kesmeci notes the current setup mirrors earlier soft bearish signals observed during this cycle.

The 30-day moving average (DMA30) sits at -0.16, while the longer-term 365-day moving average (DMA365) is at 0.18. Until the shorter-term average crosses above the longer-term trend, the indicator remains tilted toward bearish sentiment.

Do 4 Different Cyclical On-Chain Metrics Signal the End of Bitcoin’s Bull Market?

“All of these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is experiencing significant turbulence in the short to mid-term.

However, none of them indicate that Bitcoin has reached an overheated or cycle-top… pic.twitter.com/tPw74wqERy

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 25, 2025

Bitcoin MVRV and NUPL Provide Additional Clues

Kesmeci also assessed the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) score, which remains below its 365-day SMA. Historically, this positioning tends to precede increased selling pressure, although a rebound is possible once the score crosses back above its moving average.

The last such event occurred during the August 2024 carry trade crisis, which was resolved with a recovery after macroeconomic pressures eased.

Similarly, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric sits below its SMA365. Currently, NUPL stands at 0.49, compared to a moving average of 0.53. While not a definitive end to the bullish trend, the metric’s position implies that further strength is needed for Bitcoin to regain bullish footing.

Kesmeci concludes that these on-chain indicators collectively point to short- and mid-term uncertainty but fall short of confirming a market top.

Drawing comparisons to last year’s macro-driven selloff, he suggests that external factors—such as recent economic uncertainty and tariff-related tensions—may be temporarily suppressing BTC’s performance. If macroeconomic conditions stabilize, BTC could resume its upward trajectory, mirroring the recovery seen in 2024.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

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