Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has hit a critical turning point after getting sharply rejected from a TSDT resistance level that previously marked the start of a massive altcoin season. As the market reacts to this technical signal, analysts are closely watching for signs that a new altcoin season could be underway—one that could potentially mirror the explosive shift seen in 2021.
A new crypto analysis by market expert Tony Severino, posted on X social media on July 15, reveals that Bitcoin Dominance has once again faced a sharp rejection from the crucial TSDT resistance area near 65%. This level represents a technical ceiling that previously triggered a complete rotation of capital from BTC to alternative cryptocurrencies, fueling the famous altcoin season in early 2021.
The analyst’s monthly chart shows Bitcoin Dominance steadily climbing from mid-2022, peaking at around 65% in July 2025 before being rejected. This behavior mirrors the price action observed in late 2020 to early 2021, when BTC.D also reached this zone, got rejected, and then plunged—triggering a full-blown altcoin rally.
Currently, Severino’s chart shows that Bitcoin Dominance sits at approximately 64.07%, just under the TDST resistance at 63.83%, with a notable candle forming after a strong uptrend. The analyst has indicated that if history repeats itself in this current cycle, it may result in a similar capital inflow into altcoins, possibly igniting the next altseason.
Furthermore, the chart outlines key technical thresholds, including the TDST resistance, a TDST risk around 57.11%, and TDST support down at 40.08%. A decline toward these lower levels would indicate a significant drop in BTC dominance and further reinforce a pro-altcoin environment.
Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader has also shared insight on the possibility of an explosive altcoin season this bull cycle. The analyst stated on X that a historical pattern between the US Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin Dominance appears to be repeating, signaling the beginning of a new altcoin supercycle.
According to his chart, three major DXY bull traps have been identified since 2016, each followed by a dramatic decline in BTC.D and a strong rally in the altcoin market. The first two DXY bull traps, which occurred around 2017 and 2020, both triggered significant breakdowns in BTC.D—plunging from over 90% to around 35% in 2018, and again in 2021. These breakdowns marked the start of powerful runs, now recognized by the analyst as altcoin supercycles.
The current market structure now suggests that the next leg lower could be imminent, with BTC.D beginning to trend downward again. If history repeats itself, this setup implies a weakening dollar, declining Bitcoin Dominance, and the potential for altcoins to outperform significantly in the coming months.
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