Bitcoin’s price movement remains in focus as it continues to consolidate just below its previous all-time high. Despite a brief surge that brought it within range of its $111,000 peak, the asset has struggled to establish a breakout.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $108,927, representing a 0.2% increase over the past 24 hours. The persistence of this consolidation phase comes amid growing market discussions around spot and derivatives behavior.
One of the more notable on-chain observations comes from CryptoQuant contributor BorisVest, who analyzed the prolonged negative delta between spot and perpetual prices on Binance. According to the analyst, this delta has remained in negative territory since December 2024.
That means the spot price of Bitcoin has consistently traded above the perpetual futures price on Binance, an unusual structure during what appears to be a bullish market trend.
“When the delta flipped negative last December, Bitcoin had just marked a then-ATH,” BorisVest noted. He explained that this divergence signaled an aggressive buildup of long positions in the perpetual market, just before Bitcoin corrected to $74,000.
Despite Bitcoin reaching new highs recently, the delta still hasn’t reversed. “The sustained gap shows that leveraged traders have yet to commit to the rally in full,” he added. This trend could indicate a phase of accumulation in the spot market, which historically precedes stronger price movements.
The analyst also warned that when perpetual prices eventually flip above spot prices, it may signal a shift toward a more speculative environment.
In such scenarios, sudden price corrections could occur if long positions are unwound rapidly. Traders monitoring the spot-perpetual relationship can potentially use this as a signal to adjust their risk exposure.
Another CryptoQuant analyst, Darkfost, highlighted a macroeconomic trend that could further influence Bitcoin’s trajectory, the weakening US dollar.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, is currently trading at its most significant deviation below its 200-day moving average in over two decades.
This decline coincides with rising US debt levels and has historically aligned with strength in risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Darkfost pointed out that when the dollar loses its traditional safe-haven appeal, capital often flows toward alternative assets.
“Historical data shows that these periods have consistently benefited Bitcoin,” the analyst stated. While Bitcoin has yet to respond in full to this shift, the trend could support a future upward move, especially if liquidity continues to increase.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
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