Join the most important conversation in crypto and Web3 taking place in Austin, Texas, April 26-28.
The market panic that ensued after the collapse of Sam Bankman Fried’s FTX exchange in early November seems to be abating.
The three-month bitcoin (BTC) futures listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), widely considered a proxy for institutional activity, are drawing a premium over the the cryptocurrency’s going spot market price for the first time since FTX went bust.
The renewed premium indicates that institutional activity is no longer concentrated on the short side. The CME futures fell into a record discount in mid-November as sophisticated traders took bearish bets to hedge against a deeper FTX-induced slide in the leading cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin, however, has been more resilient than expected over the past two months, with the downside capped at around $16,000.
The three-month CME futures traded at an annualized premium of 0.2%, while their Binance counterparts drew a premium of 2.4%.
The CME futures term structure – the difference between futures of different maturities at a given time point – remains inverted or in backwardation, according to Arcane Research.
In other words, farther-month contracts continue to trade at prices lower than near-month contracts, an anomalous condition, considering prices are generally higher at the long end of the curve.
“While CME’s basis has recovered, the term structure remains in backwardation as institutional investors maintain a cautious view on bitcoin and less liquid further dated expiry dates,” Arcane Research’s Bendik Schei and Vetle Lunde wrote in a note to clients.
DISCLOSURE
Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated.
The leader in news and information on cryptocurrency, digital assets and the future of money, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups. As part of their compensation, certain CoinDesk employees, including editorial employees, may receive exposure to DCG equity in the form of stock appreciation rights, which vest over a multi-year period. CoinDesk journalists are not allowed to purchase stock outright in DCG.
Learn more about Consensus 2023, CoinDesk’s longest-running and most influential event that brings together all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web3. Head to consensus.coindesk.com to register and buy your pass now.