Bitcoin might be stuck in a downtrend, but fundamental analysis suggests it is in a healthy position. According to a recent analysis by crypto analyst Kaleo, Bitcoin is currently putting up healthier dynamics than it did in the previous halving cycle. This intriguing outlook for Bitcoin comes amidst the cryptocurrency’s struggle to stand firm above $54,000 and break above $57,000.
Kaleo’s Bitcoin analysis, which was posted on social media platform X, compared the current BTC price performance since the recently concluded April 2024 halving to its performance after the previous halving in May 2020. It has already been 141 days since the last halving, but the BTC price has yet to perform up to expectations that many expected.
The analyst highlighted that Bitcoin is currently trading 19% below its all-time high of $69,434 reached during the last market cycle. While some may interpret this underperformance as a sign of a prolonged bearish trend, Kaleo pointed out that Bitcoin is actually still holding up well. This is because, at the same time, after the 2020 halving, Bitcoin was already down 46% from the 2018 top. This historical context reiterates BTC’s stronger position today despite its current struggles to break above substantially.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $56,616. The lack of sustained bullish momentum since August has caused several crypto analysts to scale back their once-optimistic predictions. There have now been many negative and bearish predictions given the current market situation.
However, Kaleo reminds us of a sentiment similar to that that dominated the market shortly after the 2020 halving. Back then, negative outlooks were prevalent. Many market participants expressed doubts and negative predictions about BTC’s future. Yet, Bitcoin bulls eventually defied these predictions, driving the cryptocurrency’s market cap above the $1 trillion level for the first time. This also triggered a significant rise in the value of many altcoins and the emergence of new sectors like NFTs.
What if I told you Bitcoin is in a healthier place now than when it was at the same point post halving last cycle?
It’s currently only down ~19% from last cycles top (141 days post halving).
In 2020, it was down ~46% from the 2018 top 141 days post halving.… pic.twitter.com/tZ0mFey15I
— K A L E O (@CryptoKaleo) September 9, 2024
Kaleo’s analysis suggests that despite the current pessimism, history might repeat itself, and Bitcoin will once again rise above market expectations. Furthermore, the analyst suggests the crypto ecosystem is now in a better place to support a stronger price surge. Institutional investors, for instance, are now able to efficiently invest in BTC through Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Regulatory clarity surrounding the crypto industry has also improved massively in the last four years.
Another analyst, Rekt Capital, examined previous halving cycles and proposed that if history repeats itself, the next Bitcoin breakout could occur in October, which has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin. History also shows that the market peak could occur between 518 and 546 days after the April halving.
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